Tag: Social Systems Modelling

Causal Diagrams

Social systems can be represented using causal diagrams. An example is given below. Most interactions are two-way. That is, satisfiers and contra-satisfiers are traded between the two interacting organisations or individuals. These satisfiers and contra-satisfiers can be:

• absent;
• latent, i.e., potential, promised, or threatened;
• precarious, i.e., present now but not necessarily in the future; or
• entrenched, i.e., present now and assured for the future.

In principle at least, the diagrams can then be translated into a series of causal equations that can be combined and manipulated according to the rules of logic.

Figure: A causal diagram showing a typical co-operative trading relationship between two organisations or individuals

Societal Laws

Each level of organisation in society has a discipline or field of study associated with it, and much work has already been done to identify laws and rules for the behaviour of those organisations. Although there is considerable overlap, each discipline tends to focus on a particular level or levels of organisation. For example:

• international relations focus on nations within the global community;
• political science focuses on sectors and the governance of nations;
• management focuses on the interaction of individuals, teams and departments within organisations;
• social psychology focuses on interactions between individuals; and so on.

Furthermore, economics studies the field of money and trade, and information theory the field of communication.

It is suggested, therefore, that these disciplines be compared for isomorphisms. That is, accepted rules or laws in each discipline that are like those in others, and which can be generalized to yield societal laws. It should be noted, however, that new properties emerge with increasing complexity. Thus, whilst a law applying at one level will probably also apply in the levels above, it will not necessarily apply in the levels below.

Money

Many interactions involve a flow in one direction of real satisfiers or contra-satisfiers, i.e., materials, energy, or information, and the flow of money in the other. Money is a virtual satisfier and allows more complex interactions than direct barter.

However, not all transactions involve the trade of real satisfiers or contra-satisfiers for money. The direct barter of satisfiers for satisfiers still exists, particularly at the level of interaction between individuals, and particularly when information is the satisfier. Thus, economics cannot fully explain society.

However, because the flow of money is in a reverse direction to the flow of materials, energy, and information, where there is an economic theory there may also be a theory of real satisfiers that can be generalized to situations in which barter still takes place. In other words, there may also be a more general theory of the trade of satisfiers which includes both financial transactions and barter.  “Willingness to pay” surveys are, for example, often used to place a monetary value on satisfiers.

Care needs to be taken though. Economic theories not only partially explain society, but are often also based on a particular historical context. Any more general theory would need to be disconnected from any such context. Thus, a way forward may be the research of generally accepted economic theories to see if they can be converted into more general ones that also apply to barter and are independent of context.

Practical Modelling

Despite simplification, the volume of information needed to predict society is too great for the human mind to process. It is necessary, therefore, to build a mathematical or computer model. An outline of how we might do so is given below:

1. Identify the organisation of interest. That is, the organisation whose behaviour needs to be understood in order to predict or alter its future. Examples include humanity as a whole, a nation, or a business.
2. Identify the highest-level components or holons of that organisation. For example, if the organisation of interest is a nation, these will be its sectors.
3. Identify the external interactions taking place between the organisation of interest or its components and any external organisations.
4. Initially, assume that all horizontal internal interactions between components are ones of co-operation, and that all vertical internal interactions are in accordance with the prevailing social contract.
5. Initially, assume that all information held or transmitted is true.
6. Run several instances of the model with other forms of interaction randomly distributed and in proportion to their real-world prevalence. They should be distributed across both internal and external interactions. Modifications include positive or negative competition horizontally, and the personal, species, or environmental contract vertically. They can also include stored or transmitted misinformation.
7. Assess the outcomes and identify any patterns that may emerge.
8. Identify critical components whose interactions must be of a particular type for stability of the whole. Also, identify any critical information which must be true for the same reason.
9. For critical components, go into more detail, model components at the next level down and repeat the above process. For example, if a sector is critical, then consider its component organisations. Continue this process until it reaches individual roles, if necessary.
10. Establish control measures to prevent critical roles from being occupied by inappropriate individuals, and any critical information from being falsified, for example, national leaders should not engage in personal contract relationships. However, to permit cultural evolution and avoid stagnation, non-critical roles should not be controlled in this way.